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فلڈ بلیٹن اور ایڈوائزری

Flood Bulletins & Advisories issued by the Flood Forecasting Division

Official copy
Issued 15 Oct 2026, 11:00 PST · Bulletin No. 124/26
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GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN
MINISTRY OF DEFENCE (DEFENCE DIVISION)
PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION
46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE-54000
BULLETIN No: 124/26 Dated: 15th October-2026 Time: 11:00 hours (PST)

RIVERS AT A GLANCE

INDUS
Below Low		KABUL
Below Low		JHELUM
Below Low		CHENAB
Below Low		RAVI
Below Low		SUTLEJ
Below Low

FLOOD SEVERITY SCALE

Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High

Note: FLOOD SEASON 2026 HAS BEEN CONCLUDED, 

NEXT FORECAST BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED ON 15th June 2027.

RAINFALL FORECAST — NEXT 24 & 48 HOURS

Rainfall forecast — next 24 hours
Rainfall forecast — next 24 hours
Rainfall outlook — next 48 hours
Rainfall outlook — next 48 hours

RIVERS SITUATION AND QUALITATIVE FLOOD FORECAST

I.      METEOROLOGICAL FEATURES

  • Yesterday's trough of westerly wave over the northern parts of the country still persists.

II.     METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK              

  • Isolated rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected over the upper catchments of river Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, Islamabad, Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan, Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and north Punjab.

III.    HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION at 0600 PST

  • All major rivers are flowing in their normal flows at all gauging stations. 

IV.    HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK

  • Flows in all major rivers are expected to remain within the normal flow range at their respective rim stations. 

V.     WEATHER FORECAST FOR 24-HOUR

  • Isolated rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected over the upper catchments of river Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, Islamabad, Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan,

    Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Abbottabad, Batagram, Chitral, Haripur, Kohistan Lower, Kohistan, Mansehra, Shangla, Swat and Dir.

    Punjab: Chakwal, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Hafizabad, Jhelum, Kasur, Lahore, Mandi Bahauddin, Narowal, Nankana Sahib, Rawalpindi, Sheikhupura and Sialkot.

     

     

VI.    WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 48-HOURS   

  • Mainly dry weather is expected over the most parts of the country, however, Isolated rain-wind/thunderstorm is expected over the upper catchments of river Indus and Jhelum, Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan,

    Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Batagram, Chitral, Kohistan, Mansehra, Shangla, Swat and Dir.

     

WEEKLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLOOK 

(16th  October, 2026 to 21st October, 2026)

I.      RAINFALL OUTLOOK

  • Mainly dry weather is expected over the most parts of the country.

II.     FLOOD OUTLOOK

  • Flows are expected to remain normal at all rim stations of all the major rivers during the period. 

Page break

3. WEATHER/RAINFALL FORECAST FOR NEXT 24-HRS

RIVERSUpper Catchments
(Above Rim Stations)		Lower Catchments
(Below Rim Stations)

RESERVOIRS LEVEL (FEET) at (0600 PST)

TARBELA

  
Level1518.80 ft

1380.00 dead → 1550.00 max cons.

   
Storage69.44% live

0.960 dead + 3.875 / 6.511 MAF live

MANGLA

  
Level1198.95 ft

1040.00 dead → 1242.00 max cons.

   
Storage57.29% live

1.000 dead + 4.169 / 7.387 MAF live

INDUS

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

JHELUM

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

CHENAB

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

RAVI

Mainly dry

Isolated thunderstorm/rain

SUTLEJ

Mainly dry

Mainly dry

4. QUANTITATIVE FLOOD FORECAST OF GAUGING STATIONS (IN THOUSANDS OF CUSECS)

RIVERSStationsActual Observations at 0600 PSTQuantitative Forecast for Next 24-hrs (Inflow)Qualitative Forecasted Flood Level (Inflow)Max Flood Peaks
(In Thousands of Cusecs)
InflowOutflowHistoricalFlood Season 2026
INDUSTarbela44.055.240 - 45Below Low832.0EH (2010)343.0
INDUSKalabagh50.644.7No. sig. changeBelow Low950.0EH (1942)464.1
INDUSChashma58.451.2No. sig. changeBelow Low1038.9EH (2010)378.6
INDUSTaunsa70.254.4No. sig. changeBelow Low960.0VH (2010)386.3
INDUSGuddu56.549.1No. sig. changeBelow Low1199.7EH (1976)426.9
INDUSSukkur44.512.0No. sig. changeBelow Low1166.6EH (1986)369.5
INDUSKotri17.90.3No. sig. changeBelow Low980.3EH (1956)184.1
KABULNowshera17.117.115 - 25Below Low391.3EH (1990)78.5
JHELUMMangla7.016.05 - 10Below Low1090.0EH (1992)137.0
JHELUMRasul19.40.0No. sig. changeBelow Low952.2EH (1992)63.7
CHENABMarala12.94.010 - 20Below Low1100.0EH (1957)275.6
CHENABKhanki9.53.7No. sig. changeBelow Low1086.4EH (1959)261.5
CHENABQadirabad19.50.0No. sig. changeBelow Low1078.0EH (2025)267.2
CHENABTrimmu16.02.2No sig. changeBelow Low944.3EH (1928)193.8
CHENABPunjnad8.40.0No sig. changeBelow Low802.5EH (1973)146.6
RAVIJassar1.21.2No. sig. changeBelow Low680.0EH (1955)36.2
RAVIShahdara1.41.4No sig. changeBelow Low576.0EH (1988)33.6
RAVIBalloki24.36.3No. sig. changeBelow Low389.8EH (1988)87.7
RAVISidhnai12.00.0No sig. changeBelow Low330.2EH (1988)61.7
SUTLEJG.S. Wala0.10.1No. sig. changeBelow Low837.0** (1955)8.3
SUTLEJSulemanki17.09.1No sig. changeBelow Low598.9EH (1955)27.2
SUTLEJIslam9.07.3No sig. changeBelow Low492.6EH (1955)10.7

Spatial: Isolated=20 to 30% of area | Scattered=31 to 50% of area | Fairly Widespread=51 to 75% of area | Widespread=76 to 100% of area, R= Rising, F=Falling

Intensity (mm/24 hours): Light ≤ 10, Moderate =10.1 – 30, Heavy=30.1 – 70, Very Heavy=70.1 - 150, Extremely Heavy > 150

Note: Concerned Departments may contact FFD, Lahore for rectification up-dation (if any)

5. HOW CLOSE IS EACH RIVER TO ITS LIMIT?

Sidhnai is the closest to flooding at 12.0 — 18.0 below its low flood level (30.0). Each bar is one station’s own flood levels across its maximum capacity; the solid run is the flow so far, the pale run is the room still left.

Station
 Below Low Low Medium High Very High Exceptionally High 
NowMax cap.
Tarbela
 Below LowLowMediumHighVHExceptionally High
44.0250.0375.0500.0650.0800.0 
44.01500
Kalabagh
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighEH
50.6250.0375.0500.0650.0800.0 
50.6950
Chashma
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighEH
58.4250.0375.0500.0650.0800.0 
58.4950
Taunsa
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighEH
70.2250.0375.0500.0650.0800.0 
70.21000
Guddu
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
56.5200.0350.0500.0700.0900.0 
56.51200
Sukkur
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery High
44.5200.0350.0500.0700.0 
44.5900
Kotri
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighEH
17.9200.0300.0450.0650.0800.0 
17.9875
Mangla
 BLLMHighVHExceptionally High
7.075.0  225.0300.0 
7.01060
Rasul
 BLLMHighVHExceptionally High
19.475.0  225.0300.0 
19.4850
Marala
 BLLowMHighVery HighExceptionally High
12.9100.0  400.0600.0 
12.91100
Khanki
 BLLowMHighVery HighExceptionally High
9.5100.0  400.0600.0 
9.51100
Qadirabad
 BLLowMHighVery HighExceptionally High
19.5100.0  400.0600.0 
19.5900
Trimmu
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
16.0150.0 300.0450.0600.0 
16.0875
Punjnad
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
8.4150.0 300.0450.0600.0 
8.4865
Jassar
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
1.250.075.0100.0150.0200.0 
1.2275
Shahdara
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
1.440.065.090.0135.0180.0 
1.4250
Balloki
BL LowMHighVery HighExceptionally High
24.3 65.090.0135.0180.0 
24.3380
Sidhnai
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighEH
12.030.046.060.090.0130.0 
12.0150
Sulemanki
 BLLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
17.050.080.0120.0175.0225.0 
17.0325
Islam
 Below LowLowMediumHighVery HighExceptionally High
9.050.080.0120.0175.0225.0 
9.0300

All figures in thousands of cusecs. Full bar = maximum (design) capacity. Solid colour is the flow reached so far and the pale wash beside it is the room still left; the dark line between them is the current reading, printed beneath it. Thin white lines are that station’s flood levels with their thresholds beneath, so the same colour can begin at a different point on every bar. Each band is named inside itself — initialled (BL, L, M, H, VH, EH) where the band is too narrow for the words, and left blank where it is too narrow for those. Stations without a design capacity are not shown.

 

6. RAINFALL RECORDED — LAST 24-HRS (UPTO 0800 PST)

Rainfall recorded — last 24 hours (upto 0800 PST)
Rainfall recorded — last 24 hours (upto 0800 PST)

 

7. RIVERS CATCHMENTS RAINFALL RECORDED (MM) DURING LAST 24-HRS (UPTO 0800 PST)

Indus: Japan Bridge=73, Phulra=33, Kalam=29, Malam Jabba=24, D.I.Khan( City=23, Aairport=12),  Khawagoobo Bridge, Shishi Darosh & Besham=20(each), Shinkiari & Murree=19(each), Lower Dir & Saidu Sharif=17(each), Daggar=15, Warsak Dam, Bosak Bridge, Astore & Oghi=14(each), Kakul & Tarbela=13(each), Chowni Bridge Chitral=12, Attock=11, Takht Bai, Arandu Nullah & Gilgit=10, Kabul,Mardan, Dir, Pattan & Gupis=09(each), Mirkhani=08, Risalpur=07, Peshawar (City=07, Airport=05, Bacha Khan Airport=01), Cherat=06, Drosh & Darashoot=05(each), Kohat Airbase & Chitral=04, Kamra Airbase, Phularwan, Chilas & Ghariala=03(each), Parachinar, Bhakkar, Tanda Dam & Bunji=02(each), Landi Kota &, Skardu=01, Dratian=Trace. 

Jhelum: Jamali Balochan=88, Sargodha (City=32, Airbase=23), Garhi Dopatta=30, Palandri=25, Sharda=18, Kotli=15, Rohtas=11, Muzaffarabad (Airport=10, City=09), Islampura=08, Jhelum=06, ManglamBalakot & Baba Shah Jalal=05(each), Joharabad, Domel=03(each), Hattian Bala=02. 

Chenab: Noorpur Thal=48, Hafizabad & Daulatnagar=10(each), Sialkot [Airport & Cantt=06(each)], Barnala=03, Gujranwala=02, Gujrat=01, Aik Nullah (Ura)=Trace.

Ravi: Lahore = Shadi Pura=28, Air Port & Chowk Nakhuda=27(each), Upper Mall=25, Lakshmi Chowk & Tajbagh Disposal=22(each), Tajpura =21, Gulshan-e-Ravi,Farrukhabad & Lahore Jail Road=19(each).,  Samanabad =18, Mannawan & Islam Pura Bazar=16(each), Shahdara & Siddique Pura Center=15(each), Iqbal Town & Shadbagh Disposal=12(each), Pani Wala Talab, Gulberg & Johar Town =10(each), Thokar Niaz Baig & Nishter Town Disposal=09(each), Kahna =08, Jubilee Town=07, Mughalpura =05, Nishter Town 04, Garden Town Ali Block=03, Saggian=02, Hydya Defense Road=Trace(each),Sheikhupura=16, Faisalabad=15, Okara=10, Kotnaina=02, Narowal=Trace. 

Sutlej: Kasur=Trace.

 Saqib Hussain
Senior Meteorologist
for Chief Meteorologist
FFD Lahore

Distribution:

  1. President Secretariat, Islamabad

  2. PM House, Islamabad

  3. Governor (All Provinces)

  4. Chairman NDMA, Islamabad

  5. Chief Minister (All Provinces)

  6. Secretary, Ministry of Defence, Islamabad

  7. Secretary, Ministry for Water Resources, Islamabad

  8. Secretary, Ministry of Information, Islamabad

  9. Secretary, Climate Change, Islamabad

  10. The Secretary General, Red Crescent, Islamabad

  11. Secretary, Irrigation Department (All Provinces)

  12. Chairman NHA, Islamabad

  13. Chief Secretary (All Provinces)

  14. DG Pak Met Services, Islamabad

  15. DG Engineers, Engineering Directorate GHQ, Rawalpindi

  16. PDMAs (DGs – All Provinces/Gilgit Baltistan)

  17. SDMA Azad Jammu & Kashmir

  18. Chairman, Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad

  19. Chairman, Indus River System Authority, Islamabad

  20. Chairman, PCRWR, Islamabad

  21. Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW), Islamabad

  22. Chief Engineer, Mangla/Tarbela/Chashma

  23. Chief Engineer, Irrigation (All Provinces)

  24. Chief Engineer (All Barrages)

  25. Chief Engineer, C.D.O., Muzaffarabad

  26. All Other Concerned

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